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The GOP is more likely than not to lose the FL senate seat.

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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-03-10 03:59 PM
Original message
The GOP is more likely than not to lose the FL senate seat.
As the three-way fight gets going in earnest The GOP is between a rock and a hard place. They have to attack Crist because the only way they can grow Rubio's percentage is at Crist's suspense. But every time they throw a bomb at Crist, every time an "out of state" surrogate calls Crist a DINO or a traitor or an opportunist. it makes it that much harder to invite Crist into the GOP Caucus and harder for him to join them should he win.

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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-03-10 04:04 PM
Response to Original message
1. Right now Meek seems like a non-factor
I don't know if he is laying low on purpose, or if he is just going to be an afterthought in this race.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-03-10 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Crist is certainly sucking up all the political oxygen
but that would be expected. Meek is smart not to spend any money right now. He also has to fight this billionaire for the nomination
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-03-10 04:11 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. on purpose ... the DNC hasn't even started yet....
Edited on Mon May-03-10 04:12 PM by Clio the Leo
... and several have said a full scale "assault" will be launched later on.

The simple fact of the matter is, there are now (thanks to 2008) so many registered Democrats in FL, that all Kendrick needs to do is win ALL Of them and half of the Indy's and with 35% of the total vote, he's got it locked.

It will be a tough fight, but a Meek victory may be the biggest upset of the whole ball game.
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quaker bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 06:55 AM
Response to Original message
4. Meek needs to be shooting
for numbers at least in the low 40s. Virtually any losing Dem can get numbers in the mid 30s even in heavily republican leaning districts. There is a real possibility of a Rubio decline or even collapse, once the federal RPOF fundraising indictments start rolling out this summer. Early reports have him firmly embedded in the midst of this to the tune of several hundred grand. Even if it is not criminal, it is really bad politics. This could drop Rubio's numbers well into the 20s, leaving an opening for Crist to approach the 40s and pull this one out.

Crist has some inside knowledge of the scope of all this RPOF stuff and has been leading with it as his attack on Rubio, laying the foundation for a greater assault as the news develops. As a leader, Crist sways like a palm tree in the breeze, but he is a sharp politician who understands one thing really well, how to run a campaign to win. If he did not think he had the goods to make things happen in the general, he would not have gone "I". I expect he thinks he needs the additional time for the news to develop and a larger pool of voters to work with. Without the news and with a primary full of teabaggers, he was pretty sure his fate was sealed. But with the news that Holder's justice department will likely drop on indictments before the general, Charley is surely targeting a Rubio collapse and shooting for the 40s. We had better do the same.
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 06:58 AM
Response to Original message
5. Sure, just as Lieberman is not part of the Democratic caucus.
:sarcasm:
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catgirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. A lot of dems stuck by Lieberman

or refused to attack him like the GOP is attacking Crist.
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Exactly. Rethugs don't like "traitors". Dems are more accepting,
which may be a bad thing for us with Lieberman but perhaps a good thing with Crist. We just have to see. I think Crist is the type that would vote with the Dems or the Rethugs depending on the issues. Not as good as Meek would be, not nearly as good for us. But not a teabagger like Rubio.
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tsuki Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
8. And yet the RW meme is that there is no difference between Crist and
Rubio, so vote the Republicon candidate. In my area, Crist will not get many Democratic votes. He is eating into the Republicon lead. So if you know a Florida Republicon, or Republicon leaning Independent, push Crist to them. We cannot let the Republicon "Tea Party Patriots" consolidate their vote.
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QC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 09:39 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Lots of people here are pushing that same meme.
Leaving aside the issue of how plentiful right wing memes are on DU these days, it's simply wrong to insist that Crist and Rubio are the same. Crist is a conservative, but Rubio is a genuine fascist.
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