I am going to predict the Unemployment Rate will decline tomorrow

Kurt_and_Hunter

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Thu May-06-10 08:53 AM
Original message

I am going to predict the Unemployment Rate will decline tomorrow

The conventional wisdom is that the payroll number in tomorrow's employment report will be good but that the unemployment rate won't change.

It could go higher -- I cannot discount that. The rate is subject to an overhang of 'discouraged' workers so if more unemployed people say they're looking for work it can change th rate even as more jobs exist.

But I have a hunch the rate will actually decline... 9.6%, 9.5%.

Every March-April data release has been so uniformly positive that I suspect the those numbers are likelier to be revised up rather than down going forward. That March and April have been very, very good months.

So yeah, I'll walk the optimistic plank on this one.

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dmallind

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Thu May-06-10 08:55 AM
Response to Original message

1. Not ready to be that optimistic - lot of discouraged folks to come back

It's possible sure, and I would welcome it of course, but gut feel says that's no more than a 25-30% probability.

Hope your'e right and I'm wrong.

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Thu May-06-10 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #1

3. if the news is good enough it could make a future rise likelier

As you and I both note, there a huge psychological factor in the rate measurement. Whether someone is unemployed or just not working is a subjective, self-reported thing.

If the entire public were somehow convinced that there are plenty of jobs out there the unemployment rate should go up!

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Kdillard

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Thu May-06-10 09:00 AM
Response to Original message

2. I hope you are right.

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BootinUp

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Thu May-06-10 09:09 AM
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4. If not, it may be useful to look at

other employment data that includes people with partial employment. There must be an improvement there.

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Oceansaway

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Thu May-06-10 09:19 AM
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5. MSM will down play it, as will the GOP

they will discount it cuz of the Census hiring....

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WI_DEM

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Thu May-06-10 09:50 AM
Response to Original message

6. I predict more jobs will be created but don't know if the rate itself will decline, don't believe it

will increase.

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