"Dem Exodus Never Materialized"

Dem Exodus Never Materialized
May 6, 2010 11:49 AM

By Amy Walter
Despite the hand wringing around DC this morning that Rep. David Obey's (D-WI) retirement will open the floodgates for more high-profile Dem retirements, the reality is that there aren't many "surprises" left.

Talk of an "exodus" of Dem retirements after the health care vote, it hasn't happened -- and it won't.

First, filing has closed in about 70% of the nation's congressional districts -- including in most of the biggest states like FL, TX, and PA. And, frankly, there just aren't that many potential retirees left in the 20 states where filing is still open.

Moreover, of the "old-timers" who could be at risk of still throwing in the towel, only one, 10-term Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN), represents a swing CD.

In NY, embattled Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) continues to insist he's running again. Even if he did retire, however, this Harlem-based seat is not at risk of falling into GOP hands. Some Dems are worried that Rep. Mike Arcuri (D) could retire, but he's served for only 2 terms. While rumors of his imminent departure have swirled for months, we'll believe them only when he actually steps down.

The Democratic delegations in states like Colorado, Arizona and Connecticut are basically brand new. Of the 15 Dems in those 3 states, 9 have been elected since '06.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/05/dem_exodus_neve.php