Over the last few months the question has been debated about Romney as a future Presidential nominee.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart/288Those of us who were raised in conservative homes with strong church backgrounds have never really taken him seriously.
The reason for that is that regular conservative Christians harbor significant animus against Mormons. The feel that the Book of Mormon is a nonsensical addition to Christian literature and the fact that they send their Seminary students off to learn Hebrew and Greek to read the original sacred texts is mocked by a cynical cult that is based on a written document that has been 'fetched' by angels.
But it is more than that. Mormons have a particular rectruitment strategy that is a permanent source of antagonism to other Christians. If you look around you will find that most Mormon churches are located in very close proximity to high schools. Mormons pack their church with after hour activites in order to keep their children seperated and occupied. It is also a very clever way to bring in other Christians and poach their membership.
The fact that Mormons are actively trying to increase their numbers by poaching children of other churches is, as you can imagine, a frequently discussed and emotional discussion in thousands of evangelical Churches in the US.
Add to that the history of the Mormon Church and the fact that from the begining Joseph Smith sought to elect a Mormon President of the US to confirm their legitimacy means that there are sizeable numbers of conservative Christians that would rather vote for Obama than elect a Mormon President. My father was a great guy who also believed "better dead than red". He would support Fidel Castro for President before he would support a Mormon. (Full disclosure my father's great great uncle was President of the Mormon Church and that fellow's father was the first mayor of SLC - but apostate Mormon families are a significant source of anti Mormon evangelical fuel).
Now let's add to it other realities:
1) Of the last 5 Presidents before Obama 4 were sitting Governors and the one that wasn't was a sitting Vice President.
2) In recent history no one who has run and failed at getting the primary has come back and won the nomination in an open contest (You can't count Reagan's run against Ford because Ford was a sitting President and after the nomination Reagan was perceived as the real winner. You can't count Bush Sr. because he lost the nomination battle to Reagan and then was handed the nomination as a sitting Vice President.)
The logic is pretty clear - if Romney couldn't defeat McCain who was an ineffectual candidate how can he be expected to beat Obama - who McCain lost to? Moreover Romney finished third after Huckabee in delegates.
3) No candidate has more documented YouTube moments where he absolutely contradicts previously bedrock policies than Romney.
4) The Republicans don't have a long extended primary season. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is just about it. Then the powers to be, and the money comes together and falls into line.
Romney spent $7 million in Iowa in 2008 and finished a very weak 2nd. Evangelicals control the Republican caucuses in Iowa. Romney has moved to NH and may do well there. In South Carolina Romney just barely edged out Thompson to get third place with a measly 14% of the vote.
But if that hasn't convinced you then consider the following news report.
Romney goes to Utah (the state that he did the best in for obvious reasons) and begs them to send Bennett to the primary.
Romney is laughed out of the room and Senator Bennett is sent packing.
Nobody in the Republican Party in Utah is listening to Mitt Romney and if he can't get Republican Mormons to listen to him in Utah then no one in the party is listening to Mitt Romney.
From the Mormon news service reporting on Romney's embarassing performance
http://www.deseretnews.com/mobile/article/700030688/GOP-candidates-make-final-pleas.html"We need Bob Bennett's skill and intellect and power," Romney said. He called Bennett a man whom "America and Utah cannot afford to lose." But Romney and Bennett were met with some boos from the floor.
. . .
Bennett, who happens to be a former LDS bishop and is a grandson of former LDS President Heber J. Grant, said that he knows it comes from out of state. "They misspelled Utahns on the back page. It has a postmark from Cleveland. I think (the flier) helped me today. This is just more out-of-state people trying to tell Utahns how to vote."
And from the blogs
http://mittromney2012potus.blogspot.com/2010/05/sen-bob-bennett-was-thrown-out-of.htmlBREAKING NEWS: Mitt Romney failed to bolster Senator Robert Bennett. Romney felted he was widely popular in Utah and his support would drive home a win at the Utah State GOP Convention. Early reports today stated Romney was not well liked by many of the Utah delegates and there was a strong possibility of Bennett’s defeat.
Romney’s lack of influence at Utah’s GOP may foretell future decline of political influence for Mitt Romney. After all if Mitt lacks influence in Utah of all places, it was felt a loss in Utah for Mitt, may signal a decline in Mitt’s national influence.
http://mittromney2012potus.blogspot.com/2010/05/sen-bob-bennett-was-thrown-out-of.html“SALT LAKE CITY – Republican Sen. Bob Bennett was thrown out of office Saturday by delegates at the Utah GOP convention in what represents a stunning defeat for a once-popular three-term incumbent who fell victim to a growing conservative movement nationwide.
Bennett's failure to make it into Utah's GOP primary — let alone win his party's nomination — makes him the first congressional incumbent to be ousted this year and demonstrates the difficult challenges candidates are facing from the right in 2010.”
This is a horrendous defeat for Romney.