North Carolina Looking Good for Obama

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

North Carolina looking good for Obama

It continues to look like North Carolina will move up the list of swing states in 2012. The state was hotly contested in 2008 but ultimately not very important to the outcome of the Presidential contest- winning it was icing on top of a cake that Barack Obama was going to be eating either way. We've been finding over the course of our polling this year though that Obama is holding up better in North Carolina than he is in more traditional swing states that he won by wider margins in 2008, places like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. It's looking conceivable that he could actually perform better in North Carolina than in those places and that increases the likelihood that the state could be a key part of Obama's path to 270 electoral votes and not just the difference between winning 350 and winning 365.

PPP's first poll in the state since the death of Osama bin Laden finds 50% of North Carolinians approving of Obama to 46% who disapprove. This is the first time we've found Obama hitting the 50% approval mark there since June of 2009. It's a given that Obama has maintained strong support from African Americans so the key to his high water mark is that his 37% approval with white voters matches the 37% of their votes we found him winning on our last poll in 2008.

<snip>

If there's an individual state where the decision of Mike Huckabee not to run next year hurts Republicans the most it might be North Carolina. PPP has now polled general election match ups for the Presidential race in the state 7 months in a row. Huckabee is the only Republican who has ever led Obama in one of those match ups, and he polled the best of the GOP folks in a head to head with the President 6 out of those 7 months. On this most recent poll, conducted the weekend Huckabee announced he wasn't running, he trailed Obama by just a single point at 47-46.



http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/north-carolina-looking-good-for-obama.html:kick:

:woohoo:

and senate in 2010, for the first time in many years, so they will be redrawing the congressional district maps

And we haven't have the political clout to force the resignation of Bush-appointed US Attorney George Holding

I think we can win here in 2012, but I don't think it's gonna be a cakewalk: it'll take hard work

to reduce early voting times and require voter id's. They know
the harder they make it for Dems to turn out the numbers, the more likely
they thwart Obama--especially when Dems are holding the Convention
in Charlotte!

:(

:evilgrin:

I suspect you will be saying this right up to the election..

"1.5 days is long time.. means nothing!"

I have a second home in Harnett County, but my home of residence is Utah. My vote is always for naught in this state.

My Reps are Orrin Hatch, Mike Lee, & Rob Bishop. All Republican and all batshit nuts, in my opinion. Orrin Hatch will be gone next election, but he will be replaced by a Tea Party fanatic. They are already laying the groundwork for that.

It could look like '68. NC is a very activist state..don't think that these folks are "clueless." We are not a "lock step" folk...like our rebel, Repugs over the border in South Carolina.

though... It's worth a :rofl:

:rofl:

What an inflated, and probably sorely undeserved, sense of self. YOU DO NOT SPEAK FOR ME! I'm hard put to think of anyone with whom I disagree more. And yes I am a rock ribbed Democrat to the core.

:dem:

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

Self proclaimed "Activists" make me itch, or maybe it's the "grass" in the "grassroots". And "grassroots" certainly doesn't mean what it did in '08. I suspect they are much more ragtag these days. ;)

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

:rofl:

Indiana and NC are the two that worry me the most. This is good news. It is also very early news.

There are numerous plausible scenarios without either.. but it would nice to win them again.