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Consider this - By invading Afghanistan, Bush essentially drove Al Qaeda and many of the Taliban into Pakistan. His actions have essentially helped to destabilize Pakistan, fueling extremism in the country. Launching armed Predator attacks into Pakistan, a policy continued by Obama, isn't helping matters at all. Sure, Pakistan claims to be our ally, and currently their nuclear arsenal seems to be secure. But can anyone say with any degree of certainty how long this will be the case?
If the extremist elements in Pakistan ever do manage to take over - whether via elections or overthrow - then the world as we know it now could certainly take a very drastic turn for the worse. The most immediate concern is India - how would they react in this situation? The two countries very nearly went to war just a few years ago over terrorist attacks, it's hard to imagine India simply sitting by and waiting to see what happens if extremists were to gain access to Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Of course there's also the very real threat of one or more of those nukes finding their way to Europe, one of our Asian allies, or even possibly to the US itself. A nuke wouldn't have to be smuggled into the country to do serious harm. A nuke hidden in a cargo container sitting in a large port waiting for inspections could cause quite a bit of damage as well.
I'm not too terribly worried about Al Qaeda or any other terrorist group obtaining nukes from the old Soviet Republics, since nuclear weapons require regular maintenance and refueling. I'm really not worried about North Korea selling nukes, since I don't think that even they are that suicidal. However, what I do worry about is Pakistan, a country with its own nuclear weapons and with a fairly decent number of extremists. And the actions of one George W. Bush have only helped to strengthen them and increase their numbers.
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