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Just Incase You Needed Evidance That What Gas Prices Are Based On Is Bullshit...

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no limit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:38 PM
Original message
Just Incase You Needed Evidance That What Gas Prices Are Based On Is Bullshit...
Edited on Thu May-12-11 05:49 PM by no limit


When the price of crude oil goes up almost instantly so does gasoline. The excuse often given is that the gas station owners must increase their price so they can afford the next shipment of oil. If that is indeed true then what is the excuse for gas prices not falling when crude oil takes a large dive as it did last week?

The price of crude oil fell almost 10% in a single day last week. Did this fall have any effect on gas prices we pay at the pump? Almost none. Whatever tiny drop there was gas prices are back up to where they were two weeks ago. And eventhough gas prices have gone up by about 20 cents a gallon in the last month the price of oil has largely remained flat if you don't count the significant decrease seen last week.

This of course shouldn't be a shock to anyone, but it is nice to see the data illustrated in a chart.
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
1. Recommend
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Wounded Bear Donating Member (665 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
2. Is that chart right?
It seems to me it might be labeled backwards.
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ewagner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. That's what I'm thinking
credibility is shot...
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no limit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Oops, thanks for pointing this out. Fixed.
Making charts harder than it seems apparently :)
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NutmegYankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. I had that same thought.
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:49 PM
Response to Original message
5. When I moved in January, gas was $2.75. It's 3.93 now.
That's a massive increase, with nothing other than speculation as an excuse, in my opinion.
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tularetom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
7. I think the labels are bassackwards
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Terry in Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
8. Meh.
Couple of questions:

- How many oil barons do you think the Bilderbergers allow at the table when they fiendishly manipulate oil and gas prices?
- Why would we be so obsessed with every tick and hiccup in gas prices if we weren't addicted to the stuff?
- How soon can we get clean?

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Shagbark Hickory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #8
22. You took the words out of my mouth! (And you'll be hearing from my lawyer!)
:silly:
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Xicano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
9. This chart doesn't reflect your first sentence.
Most places in this chart where I see crude oil going up, I see gas prices either going down or rallying sideways.

I think this chart shows the difference between supply/demand for gasoline vs crude oil, since a lot of other products are produced from crude oil, not just gasoline.

I'm just saying...
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LiberalLoner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. Exactly and another consideration is that the refineries are a choke point for supply. If they
cut down on production of gasoline due to maintenance or just whatever reason, there is tighter supplies in the US and the price goes up.

And no, there won't be any new refineries built in the US because the oil people know very well we are at peak oil and there is no money in building another refinery when the oil supply is going to be diminishing in coming years.

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Xicano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #15
21. +1
Exactly. Supply/demand for gasoline vs crude are not always going to follow the same trend. There's a number of different fundamentals between the two.
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skepticscott Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:07 PM
Response to Original message
10. Must be nice to just flipflop
the data when it doesn't jive with your preconceived notion.

And if more people were smart enough to drive a diesel, it wouldn't be nearly so bad. My wife pays 30 cents less a gallon for D, and gets 40 mpg.
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Mosby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. that's odd
Diesel around az is about 30 cents higher than gasoline.
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intheflow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #10
16. I've never seen diesel cheaper than gas.
It's a good 40 cents higher this week here in Colorado.
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druidity33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #10
18. Did you just flip-flop the data?
Because everywhere i've EVER lived, diesel is consistently more expensive than regular gas. Usually by 30 cents or so...

:eyes:

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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #18
24. In Japan, diesel is cheaper
Here's a Japanese blog where the author wonders why the price of diesel is 17% higher than gasoline in the US, but 15% lower than gasoline in Japan:

http://eritokyo.jp/independent/California2008-oil2.html
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druidity33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-11 05:31 AM
Response to Reply #24
32. Maybe, but SkepticScott lives in IL. nt.
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Skink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
11. another variable should be miles driven.
gas already purchased through futures contracts must bring in a certain price point.
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Curmudgeoness Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:29 PM
Response to Original message
13. Holy crap. I can understand this chart, and it's significance.
Few here are dumb enough to fall for the excuses that are being thrown around anyways about why gas prices are up. Oh well, maybe the next excuse will be that the "production costs" have gone up drastically because that seems to be the only other factor involved unless we just call it gouging and speculation.
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:30 PM
Response to Original message
14. You do realize crude oil doesn't miraculously and instantly turn itself into gas right?
Your graph is way too short to show relationships.
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BadgerKid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 06:49 PM
Response to Original message
17. I get your point, but would you show more than 1 month.
Nothing personal....let's just see the really big picture!

One would think that the price at the pump would lag behind the price of crude, but often it does not.
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
19. This is a longer term chart.
http://www.petrostrategies.org/Graphs/Crude_Oil_and_Gasoline_Pump_Prices.htm



Not sure what you are using for crude oil but I think we tend to use West Texas Intermediate.
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no limit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Do you have a chart using more recent data showing the last few months?
Edited on Thu May-12-11 07:12 PM by no limit
Crude oil came from the DOE website:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

Thanks!
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 07:39 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. Well I just lifted it from that website so I don't have raw data at my fingertips.
It's a bit more complicated than this crude oil to gas though. Different crudes have different properties that make refining them more or less difficult. Certain refineries are able to handle heavier crudes while others aren't without upgrades. That is why the loss of light Libyan crude was worse for the market. The Saudis said they would replace the shortfall but gave us heavy crude that no one wanted.

Other variables include the different mixes of gasoline for winter vs summer months and different pollution requirements of different states. California gas is more expensive to produce for example.

And then it depends on where the refiner gets it's crude and how full that facility is. If it is overflowing then the refiner that uses that crude is getting a better deal.

I'm no expert. I just tried to understand the market to figure out what the difference in refiners was all about.
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no limit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 08:53 PM
Response to Reply #23
28. But you have to admit that such a drastic drop in oil prices not having any effect on gas prices...
is very odd.

I would love to have more data over a longer period of time. But the only places I could find such data charge quite a bit of money for it, I'll spend a bit more time tomorrow to find it as I find these trends very interesting. I am also no expert, but I found questioning what the experts tell you can be healthy. Thanks for asking these questions.
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krispos42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #19
27. Except now... the price of crude is around 250 cents per gallon ($100 for 40 gallons)
But the price of gasoline is like 400 cents per gallon.

The last time gasoline cost this much per gallon, the price of crude was 40% higher than it is now.


According to this chart, the price of gas should be between $3.20 and $3.60 a gallon.
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me b zola Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 08:40 PM
Response to Original message
25. that should be overlayed with oil company profits. n/t
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Canuckistanian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 08:45 PM
Response to Original message
26. Both Canada and the USA are holding hearings today about gas prices
Our Industry Minister is grilling Oil Execs, Refiners and Distributors, demanding to know how they set gas prices.

This may end up being a full-fledged Inquiry.
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RB TexLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 08:54 PM
Response to Original message
29. The price is justified because people pay it. There has been no real decline in demand.
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madville Donating Member (743 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
30. The Senate hearings today were worthless
From what I read today it stated that the Senate Democrats plan calls for cutting oil corporation subsidies 21 billion over the next ten years. At present consumption of 150 billion gallons a YEAR that works out to $0.014 per gallon, a freaking penny and a half per gallon. Gas is almost $4 a gallon and everyone is making a big deal over less than one half of %1 of the cost of gas.

I kind of agree with the one Senator today that said the whole thing was just a dog and pony show, it's theatrics and posturing.
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Exilednight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-11 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. Most Senate hearings are. When the's last time anything productive has happened after
one of these types of high profile hearings?
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JoeyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-11 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
33. Gas here never went down at all.
It went up 10 cents a gallon when it was dropping for everywhere else last week, and it just went up another 10 for good measure.
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eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-11 02:11 PM
Response to Original message
34. Here is a better chart
If you're going to make an argument about the relationship between crude prices and gasoline prices, try looking at more than one month's worth of data:



I'm sure there are many months in that period where, looking at just one month, one price swings one way and the other price swings opposite.

:hippie:
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