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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 06:23 PM
Original message
Libyan Revolution Day 87
Links to sites with updates: http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-0">AJE Live Blog http://blogs.aljazeera.net/twitter-dashboard">AJE Twitter Dashboard http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/libya">The Guardian http://uk.reuters.com/places/libya">Reuters http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/">Telegraph http://feb17.info/">feb17.info http://www.livestream.com/libya17feb?utm_source=lsplayer&utm_medium=embed&utm_campaign=footerlinks">Libya Alhurra (live video webcast from Benghazi) http://libya-alhurra.tumblr.com/">Libya Alhurra archives and updates http://www.ustream.tv/channel/benghaziradio">Benghazi Free Radio, in Arabic (may have translators present at times) http://www.tributefm.com/">Tribute FM (English broadcast from Benghazi) http://www.libyafeb17.com/">libyafeb17.com

Twitter links: http://twitter.com/#!/aymanm">Ayman Mohyeldin, with AJE http://twitter.com/#!/bencnn">Ben Wedeman, with CNN http://twitter.com/#!/tripolitanian">tripolitanian, a Libyan from Tripoli http://twitter.com/#!/BaghdadBrian">Brian Conley, reporter in Libya http://twitter.com/#!/freelibyanyouth">FreeLibyanYouth, Libyan advocate http://twitter.com/#!/LibyaFeb17_com">LibyaFeb17.com twitter account http://twitter.com/#!/ChangeInLibya">ChangeInLibya, Libyan advocate https://twitter.com/#!/TheyCallMeSof">Sofyan Amry (arrived in Benghazi recently) http://twitter.com/#!/KiloFoot">KiloFoot (general Arab Spring news aggregation)

Useful links: http://audioboo.fm/feb17voices">feb17voices http://www.google.com/search?q=time+in+libya">Current time in Libya http://www.islamicfinder.org/cityPrayerNew.php?country=libya">Prayer times in Libya

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1092590">Day 85 here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixwx_B38678">Marching On in Libya, for the revolutionaries!


Protesters rally after Friday prayers for Muammar Gaddafi to step down

Photograph: Al Jazeera


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/14/muammar-gaddafi-exit-halt-air-strikes">Muammar Gaddafi is hoping that a 'dignified' exit will halt air strikes
From his hiding place in Tripoli, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi is desperately trying to pave a way for an exit from public life.

Sources say the veteran autocrat's grand plan is to retire to a godfather-like role in the nation he has ruled for more than 40 years and then allow institutions to grow that will eventually replace his hold on power.

This, he hopes, will convince Nato to stop its two-month campaign of almost nightly air strikes, which have decimated Libya's military and defences and reinforced a rebellion that is steadily eroding the country's power base.

Interviews with four regime members have confirmed that Gaddafi knows his time is up. "But he isn't going to run away to Venezuela," one official said. "He wants to move to the background and lead a dignified life. He himself has said he wants to be like the Japanese emperor, or Castro."


Good luck with that Gaddafi.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/andrew-gilligan/8513982/Tripoli-despatch-Nato-tightens-squeeze-on-Gaddafi.html">Tripoli despatch: Nato tightens squeeze on Gaddafi
Even for an Arab dictator, it is an unusually cynical variant of the "human shield" gambit. On the roof of his Tripoli command bunker, Colonel Gaddafi has installed a children's fairground.

Forty feet away from the crater made on Thursday by a NATO bomb, young boys and girls played happily on a roundabout shaped like a giant tea set.

...

But the trip succeeded only in showing that if anyone has put civilians in harm's way, it is the government of Libya. Also near the top of the bunker, which is covered with grass, civilians have been brought to live in tents, ready to sacrifice themselves for the good of their leader.


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/world/africa/13tripoli.html?_r=1">Libya Offers Controlled Tour of NATO Bombing Sites in Tripoli
...
But acting as a sort of truth squad in weighing the authenticity of the Qaddafi government’s accounts of the bombings is an essential part of the job description for foreign journalists, and the notion of reporters lingering in a children’s playground in the pre-dawn hours was not the only element in the official story of the compound bombing that raised serious doubts.

There was, too, the fact that the three huge water-filled bomb craters shown to the reporters, and other features close by, appeared to point to the real target of the bombings as being a vast network of underground bunkers running for a half a mile or more beneath the compound — a network that is believed to have been well known, for years, to Western intelligence agencies tracking the largely clandestine life of Colonel Qaddafi.

The other features that pointed to an attack on the compound’s subterranean tunnels and bunkers included bomb fragments strewn around the craters that indicated that they came from bunker-busting, 2,000-pound bombs that were used by American aircraft in the attack on Baghdad in 2003, according to a Western security adviser accompanying one of the television crews who said he was familiar with the bombs.

Also, smaller craters at the bomb sites were tangled with what appeared to be the punctured wreckage of massive concrete and steel structures reaching deep underground, and at least one large aboveground ventilation shaft. Close to the children’s playground, there was a concrete stairway descending to a steel door, flanked by green-painted steel railings.

An official determination to disguise the stairway’s presence was betrayed by what appeared to have be a carefully marshaled gathering of a crowd of protesters around the stairway, and a frenzied push forward by the protesters whenever a reporter or a camera crew approached to get a closer view.


http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/05/201151415330280186.html">Libyan rebels seek European support
A senior leader of the Libyan opposition council has met French president Nicolas Sarkozy for talks in a bid to garner further international support for the fight against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Mahmoud Jibril, who serves as the foreign minister of the opposition Transitional National Council, met Sarkozy in Paris on Saturday, for a discussion on the prospects for a political transition in Libya.

Sarkozy and the French prime minister Francois Fillon welcomed Jibril on the steps of the Elysee Palace, the president's official residence. No statement was released after their talks.

France has been taking part along with other international forces under NATO command in air strikes on strategic Libyan government sites in an effort to protect the country's civilian population.


http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jfSY6hkmSTCUI0pg1m_eNTxq580A?docId=218d0977a1164f0999ea6c59c3ad5828">Migrant: Many ships failed to aid Libyan refugees
VALLETTA, Malta (AP) — The 50-foot (15-meter) wooden boat drifted across the Mediterranean for five days without food and water after its engine died, unable to propel the 117 people crammed aboard from war in Libya to safety in Europe.

More than once, boats passed within sight, a survivor told The Associated Press: a container ship, a fishing boat, then two big ships, including one that shone a spotlight on the crippled boat. A plane flew overhead.

Still, help did not arrive until the tenth day. By then, a pregnant woman had died after trying to quench her thirst with sea water.

"A lot of people saw our ship. Fishermen, a ship with containers. We even saw a plane in the sky," said Faith Osarnehkoe, a Nigerian who was one of the 116 immigrants rescued by Maltese sailors and the sister of the woman who died.


http://en.rian.ru/world/20110514/164029405.html">Greece to send humanitarian aid to Benghazi
Greece will send a humanitarian aid ship to Libyan rebel's stronghold of Benghazi, Greek Foreign Minister, Dimitris Droutsas said on Saturday.

"Next week Greece will provide a ship that will carry humanitarian aid for Libyan rebels as well as the mobile hospital. Greek diplomats will accompany the mission and will provide communication with insurgents," Droutsas said after the talks with the UN special envoy on Libya, Abdelilah al-Khatib, who is leaving for Tripoli on Sunday.

Greece has already closed its embassy in Tripoli on security concerns, but has yet broken diplomatic ties with Libyan government.

...

Greece was among those supported the military intervention to Libya and provided the NATO allies with the airports and military base, but did not take part in the operation itself.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/13/photographer-anton-hammerl-held-libya">Fears grow for photographer not seen since his capture in Libya 39 days ago
Concern is growing over a British-based photographer who has been missing for 39 days after being captured in Libya by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi.

Anton Hammerl, an award-winning photographer, was captured on 4 April and his family have had no concrete news about him since then.

The regime has, however, allowed access to three other journalists who were captured with him.

Hammerl, who has joint South African and Austrian nationality but lives with his wife, Penny Sukhraj, in Surrey, had been travelling with Manuel Varela de Seijas Brabo, Clare Gillis and James Foley when they were captured.



http://uk.reuters.com/places/libya">Click here for updated map



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x594751">A topic on the women of the revolution, dispels myths about the treatment of women in Benghazi.

Videos to bring the Libyan Revolution into context
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0vChMDuNd0">The Battle of Benghazi. BBC Panorama on Libya http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyaPnMnpCAA">Part 1, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMzwQvcx62s">Part 2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwWwOeZqz6M">Video of the convoy sent to take Benghazi, taken from a dead soliders cell phone (shows how massive the operation was). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAclhhHv43s&feature=player_embedded">Arab Awakening: Libya: Through the Fire. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD5tu5bJWKc">Tea of Freedom Song. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z41kQvx4uKw">Libya: Part 2 - The Uprising


http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-march-10-0">March 10 7:28pm Saif al Islam Gaddafi says "the time has come for full-scale military action" against Libyan rebels. He goes on to say that Libyan forces loyal to his family "will never surrender, even if western powers intervene".


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x677397">Text of UN resolution 1973. How will a no fly zone work? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWEwehTtK2k">AJE reports.

Belgium: http://www.lesoir.be/actualite/monde/2011-03-21/les-f-16-belges-dans-le-feu-de-l-action-829588.php">Six F-16 Falcon fighter jets of the Belgian Air Component. Bulgaria: The Bulgarian Navy Wielingen class frigate Drazki http://paper.standartnews.com/en/article.php?d=2011-03-23&article=35828">will participate in the naval blockade. Canada: Canadian Forces Air Command has deployed http://www.cefcom-comfec.forces.gc.ca/pa-ap/ops/mobile/index-eng.asp">a total 440 military personnel as well as the Halifax-class frigate HMCS Charlottetown are participating in operations. Denmark: The Royal Danish Air Force http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/ECE1227910/denmark-to-send-squadron-on-libya-op/">is participating with six F-16AM fighters. France: French Air Force which realizes 25% of NATO's strikes http://www.defense.gouv.fr/operations/autres-operations/harmattan/libye-debut-des-operations-aeriennes-francaises">is participating in the mission with 51 Mirage and Rafale Aircraft. Greece: The Elli-class frigate Limnos of the Hellenic Navy http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2011/03/20/greek-defence-ministry-no-participation-in-operations-outside-the-nato/">is currently in the waters off Libya as part of the naval blockade. Italy: Four Tornado ECRs of the Italian Air Force http://www.corriere.it/esteri/11_marzo_20/tripoli-bombardamento-chiesta-riunione-onu_2e95d102-52c0-11e0-a725-dbe20f0ba2b5.shtml">participated in SEAD operations. Jordan: Six Royal Jordanian Air Force fighter jets http://www.allheadlinenews.com/briefs/articles/90043651?After%20hesitation%2C%20Jordan%20joins%20in%20Libya%20no-fly%20campaign">landed at a coalition airbase in Europe on 4 April to provide "logistical support." NATO: E-3 airborne early warning and control (AWACS) http://www.adressa.no/nyheter/nordtrondelag/article1606878.ece">aircraft operated by NATO. Netherlands: The Royal Netherlands Air Force http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/dutch-f-16s-operational-over-libya">provides six F-16AM fighters and a KDC-10 refuelling plane. Norway: The Royal Norwegian Air Force has http://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/libya/artikkel.php?artid=10091294">deployed six F-16AM fighters to Souda Bay Air Base. Qatar: The Qatar Armed Forces are http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123248695">contributing six Mirage 2000-5EDA fighter jets and two C-17 strategic transport aircraft. Romania: The Romanian Naval Forces http://www.hotnews.ro/stiri-politic-8423876-traian-basescu-sustine-declaratie-presa-ora-21-00-dupa-sedinta-csat.htm">will participate in the naval blockade with the frigate Regele Ferdinand. Spain: The Spanish Armed Forces are http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Espana/intervendra/cazas/F-18/fragata/F-100/submarino/avion/vigilancia/maritima/elpepuint/20110319elpepuint_14/Tes">participating with four F-18 fighters. Sweden: The Royal Swedish Air Force will http://www.swedishwire.com/politics/9050-sweden-offers-eight-fighter-jets-for-libya-mission">commit eight JAS 39 Gripen jets for the international air campaign. Turkey: The Turkish Navy http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/03/24/general-libya-diplomacy_8373237.html">will participate with five ships and one submarine in the NATO-led naval blockade to enforce the arms embargo. United Arab Emirates: The United Arab Emirates Air Force http://www.wam.org.ae/servlet/Satellite?c=WamLocEnews&cid=1300255413630&p=1135099400124&pagename=WAM%2FWamLocEnews%2FW-T-LEN-FullNews">sent six F-16 Falcon and six Mirage 2000 fighter jets to join the mission. United Kingdom: The Royal Air Force has http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/DefenceNews/MilitaryOperations/TyphoonJoinsTornadoInLibyaGroundAttackOperations.htm">deployed 12 Tornado and 10 Typhoon fighters, surveillance aircraft, and air refuelling tankers. United States: The United States has http://www.webcitation.org/5xJ8qNGGe">deployed a naval force of 11 ships and are using MQ-1 Predator UAVs to strike targets in Libya on 23 April.

"One month ago (Western countries) were sooo nice, so nice like pussycats," Saif says in a contemptuous sing-song tone."Now they want to be really aggressive like tigers. (But) soon they will come back, and cut oil deals, contracts. We know this game." - http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2058389,00.html">Saif Gaddafi


(Yeah, Saif, as if you weren't "cutting oil deals, contracts" with western states. Who are the 'tigers' now? Bombing your own people.)

http://english.libya.tv/2011/04/25/eastern-libyans-believe-in-national-unity-distrust-au-and-turkish-mediation-survey-reveals/">The first free public opinion poll ever conducted in Libya reveals clues to Eastern Libyan sentiments
* 98 percent of the respondents do not support the division of Libya as a part of the political solution for the current conflict with the Gaddafi regime. Around 95 percent also don’t see any role for Gaddafi or his sons in a transitional period, and think it is impossible to implement any political reform in Libya if Gaddafi or one of his sons stays in power

* Around 96 percent of those polled, believe that the 17th of February revolution can consolidate the national unity of Libya and support the model of a democratic Libya based on a constitution which respects human rights

* Al-Qaeda has not played any role in the 17th of February revolution, say 94 percent of the Eastern Libyans, and 91 percent thinks it’s impossible for Al-Qaeda to play any political role in the new Libya

* The National Transitional Council is seen by 92 percent of those surveyed as “expressing the views and wishes of Libyans for change”


This is equivalent to 17% the entire population of Libya, doing the numbers very conservatively.


http://jenkinsear.com/2011/03/19/a-legal-war-the-united-nations-participation-act-and-libya/">A Legal War: The United Nations Participation Act and Libya
The above link is to an overview of why Obama's implementation of the NFZ and R2P is perfectly legal under the law. I will not post it entirely here, however, all objections come down to the misinformed position that Obama, by using forces in Libya, was invoking Article 43 of the United Nations. This is wrong. Obama invoked Article 42, which does not require congressional approval to implement. Proof of this is that Article 43 has http://www.un.org/en/sc/repertoire/actions.shtml#rel5">never been used.

It goes like this: The US law (Title 22, Chap. 7, Subchap. XIV § 287d) grants the President the right to invoke UN Article 42 http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/uscode22/usc_sec_22_00000287---d000-.html">without authorization, the War Powers Act (Title 50, Chap. 33 § 1541) grants the President permission to act without authorization under http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/50/1541–1548.html">"specific statutory authorization" which, by definition, is what 287d does. § 1543 of the War Powers Act requires the President to report to Congress, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/obama_explains_libya_mission_to_congress/2011/03/03/ABU9377_blog.html">which he did. One can argue all day and night about the legality of the War Powers Act, doesn't change the fact that under the law as it is written, the President acted within the law.






Mohammed Nabbous, killed by Gaddafi's forces while trying to report on the massacre in Benghazi

"I'm not afraid to die, I'm afraid to lose the battle" -Mohammed Nabbous, a month ago when all this began


I'm struggling to come up with something to say about this man. I was not aware of the Libyan uprising until I saw Mo's first report, begging for help, posted here on DU. I was stricken. Here was a man giving everything he had to explain a situation that clearly terrified him, I would not call him a coward in that moment, but you could see the fear in his eyes, and desperation in his voice. For 30 days Nabbous would spend many hours covering the uprising in Benghazi. For many nights I would go to sleep with the webcast of Benghazi live on my computer screen, looking to it occasionally to be sure it was still 'there.' Mo treated the chat room as if we were his friends, and in some way, we were. I never signed up to LiveStream to thank him for all his work and it seems somewhat shallow to do so now, given that I was a lurker for so long. Ever since I took over posting these threads "Libya Alhurra" has been linked as a source of information. It wasn't until last night, when I posted, and twitter posted on Mo's adventures out into Benghazi to try to determine the truth of the situation, that Mo's webchannel became a hit, over 2000 people were watching him stream live. This was curious to him because he'd done many reports like this in the past but he appeared somewhat bemused that the view count exploded as it did. Last night Mo became a star. This is a man who first started out with a webcast replete with fear and desperation finally overcoming that aspect of himself and losing that fear, to become someone who was a fighter for the resistance just as much as those who held the guns. Reporting on the front lines of Benghazi became his final act, and for that he should never, ever be forgotten. I'm so sorry Mo that I never got to know you better.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAclhhHv43s&feature=player_ded">Arab Awakening: Libya: Through the Fire is a documentary about Mo's last days, please watch it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38EXALI60hg">Mo's first report, which many of you may remember, begging for help.

Mo leaves behind a wife who is with child, she had http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/a_bright_voice_from_libyas_darkness">this to say about the No Fly Zone and R2P UN resolution:

We started this in a pure way, but he turned it bloody. Thousands of our men, women, and children have died. We just wanted our freedom, that's all we wanted, we didn't want power. Before, we could not do a single thing if it was not the way he wanted it. All we wanted was freedom. All we wanted was to be free. We have paid with our blood, with our families, with our men, and we're not going to give up. We are still going to do that no matter what it takes, but we need help. We want to do this ourselves, but we don't have the weapons, the technology, the things we need. I don't want anyone to say that Libya got liberated by anybody else. If NATO didn't start moving when they did, I assure you, I assure you, half of Benghazi if not more would have been killed. If they stop helping us, we are going to be all killed because he has no mercy anymore.


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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 06:25 PM
Response to Original message
1. Current time in Libya, 1:25am Sunday, May 15
Sorry for being slow today, family stuff.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 07:04 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Hopefully, it will be over in a week.
Then other more important things can always take precedence.

Btw - the backward link is to 85 instead of 86.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Thanks, Day 86 here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1099091

My bad. Grr. I think that's the first time I did that in awhile.

Anyway if it is that'll be great because next week is going to be super duper busy for me and I don't even know if I'll be able to do OPs. :(

I'll give it a best shot though.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I think we should discipline ourselves to
post few enough messages so that one OP lasts a week. The news is slowly drying up anyway. I think I should collect a bunch of links and then put them in one post, if they have not already been posted. And keep images down to a minimum. I really liked reading ChangeInLibya's tweet history today, because it was like a concise summary. Also, KiloFoot is neat - with one sentence summaries.

http://feb17.info/ is actually very good, because there is a list of news aggregations on the right, that often cover the very same articles that are posted here.

Maybe, your next OP could just be a vertical list of useful links.


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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. That's certainly dooable, but people start complaining about 500+ post threads.
If it is coming to a head as you guys are saying, then we'd have a 500+ post thread easily. Feel free to post whenever and whatever, and we'll see how it goes from there. Next week (not this coming week) my post-work hours will be consumed by a family visit, we could try it out then I suppose. Stuff does happen daily though, there's always something new happening.

Thanks for the thoughtful suggestions.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Good idea -- lots of work in recreating these threads every day ---
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Iterate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #4
19. .02 for all and not much more
I know we're all sitting on tweets that are probably true but might not be confirmed for weeks. We've all been pretty disciplined about only posting the best.

Not wanting to make predictions, but it's probably fair to say that we're in for both some convulsive periods with plenty of news and some tense lulls with nearly none. Not as likely many people will be looking here for long, in-depth reports and analysis during those times. More likely they'll come for links and current info, even if some of it is unconfirmed.

One of these days the minders will not show up for work and we could fill a thread in hours. At some points, tweets and audio and short video will be about all we'll have to go on. I guess that means that I would opt for anything light, fast, easy to maintain and duplicate = links in nearly a standard header, or even a template anyone could post to start a new OP. We can always repost or link back to something more substantive when it comes up.

And if there's not much happening that's apparent, like today (let's restart the stalemate meme), and not much to post, then so be it. But there will be times when none of us can keep up.
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pinboy3niner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. And when you say 'minders'...
...you are, of course, referring to Josh. But why wouldn't Josh show up for work on the Libya threads? :evilgrin:

But seriously...

I think you're right about the fluctuating news pace we can expect. The pace of the threads is mostly news-driven (with some background stories and features thrown in), and the news ebbs and flows unpredictably. Even after Gaddafi falls there are likely to be times when the news is flowing pretty quickly.

That's a good idea about having an OP template. Josh has come other commitments coming up, and he may not always be available or have the time to create the daily OP. Being able to call on someone else to fill in when necesary would also take some of the pressure off him.






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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 04:27 PM
Response to Reply #19
33. All good points. Day 92 will be the start of week 14.
Should I create a weekly thread that day or what? It could be composed of the entire last weeks worth of news (eg, this past week we had Misratas airport liberated, iffy NATO strikes in Brega, TNC met up with officials in the UK and US, and of course tomorrow there will be the ICC warrant, among other news postings), and then if anyone wants they can compile whatever news that they see for the day into individual "daily posts" (eg, each subthread would have the date in the title and it would have links to various news sources).

Assuming some big doings happen on a given day a separate thread could be created for that day.
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Yosarian71 Donating Member (185 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 09:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
17. Gadhafi's army has held together surprisingly well
Heinz had a comment on the AJE blog that when an army disintegrates the rate of defection/desertion/surrender doubles daily. I am surprised we have not had a complete collapse sooner. There has still been attempted offensive actions at the Tunisian border near Wazin and in Tripoli.

The forces in Zliten are standing up to the Misurata rebels, although a handful of snipers in an urban area can tie up a 500-1000 person force for a day or two before they are rooted out, so we shouldn't read too much into that.

If you look at past conflicts where overwhelming air power was brought to bear against an army with 30-40 year old capabilities, the defending army collapsed fairly quickly. In Afghanistan, Taliban allies started turning on them almost immediately, and in Iraq the desertion rate was well over 50% within a couple of weeks of the beginning of bombings. Serbia took a little longer.

Typically when a losing army holds together, like in South Vietnam or the Germans on the Eastern Front, it is because the victorious army is likely to impose harsh penalties on the losers, so the losers fight to the death. That is not the case here. There are actually significant rewards for defecting sooner. I am surprised at how long this has taken.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #17
32. Possibly because many of them were
paid mercenaries.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. Yes.
But "paid mercenaries" is a misnomer, the majority of reports are desperate people who want citizenship and a place to stay (I believe even one was promised a car), and others where they are told that they will be killed mercilessly if they do not fight. Fear and greed, two of the greatest drivers of war.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 08:07 PM
Response to Original message
6. Libyan students in Washington state in limbo - video
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al bupp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 09:30 PM
Response to Original message
7. NYT: How Libyan Rebels Have Repelled Qaddafi in the Western Mountains
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/05/15/world/africa/how-libya-rebels-repelled-qaddafi-western-mountains.html">How Libyan Rebels Have Repelled Qaddafi in the Western Mountains

While much attention has been focused on rebel efforts in eastern Libya and in the city of Misurata, rebels have held control of most of the Nafusah Mountain region since the unrest began in February. The region has strategic importance because it provides access to supply routes in the south. An estimated 150,000 people live here, many from the Berber minority, which was neglected by Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s Arab nationalist regime. The region’s geology and its proximity to Tunisia have helped the rebels resist here.

Good graphics accompany this article.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 09:57 PM
Response to Original message
9. As Libya Buries Airstrike Victims, Mourners Hint at Deception
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/world/africa/15libya.html">As Libya Buries Airstrike Victims, Mourners Hint at Deception
TRIPOLI, Libya — As the nine pinewood coffins were laid on scrubland beside the glistening blue waters of the Mediterranean, uniformed men with Kalashnikov rifles fired volley after volley into an azure sky, and a trumpeter blew the discordant melancholy of a final farewell.

Then, in minutes, the few hundred mourners who had gathered in this city melted away into a perfect spring day, ending another funeral — this time for the victims of a Friday bombing in the eastern oil town of Brega — that had been transformed into a pageant for denouncing the NATO forces whose bombs are taking a regular toll in Libyan lives.

For the officials who shepherd the small band of foreign journalists covering the war from here to such events, seeing them as powerful propaganda tools to be used against the Western powers, the burials on Saturday provided a moment that even the most accomplished propagandists could not have written into their script.

Just before the coffins arrived, two high-flying aircraft — NATO planes, for sure, since others are banned under a United Nations-imposed no-fly zone — wrote vapor trails high above.


pinboy3niner would like this one.
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Yosarian71 Donating Member (185 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. some points I have seen on twitter, AJE, other places

How did the caskets get back from Brega? Brega is cut off and surrounded.

There should be no bodies. The bomb that hit the bunker would have incinerated everyone.

Several of the bodies in the pictures appeared to have bullet holes.

These are kind of obvious things that even a bad journalist would notice. The MSM is populated with idiots.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #12
27. A comment here
Edited on Sun May-15-11 12:44 PM by tabatha
How did "Imams" wearing European tee shirts get to a funeral filmed in Tripoli? Over 500 miles away, with a NFZ blocking Brega. Locals said they were soldiers.
I know your blog has several If's and Buts, yet confirmation is needed before stories of this should be published.

Most of what Libyan State TV has said in the past has been disproved and NATO confirmed military radio traffic from the bunker prior to the attack.

The reaction by the official mouthpiece, is suspect as he is one of Gadaffi's family.

Let us see less of talk about stagnation, and accept NATO is waiting for the Army to defect, so that the loss of life when Tripoli is attacked is minimised. They are holding back the Freedom Fighters until the time is right.

NATO should be commended for the care they take identifying military targets, anyway civilians have no place in a command and control bunker.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/andrewgilligan/100087930/libya-has-nato-made-its-first-real-mistake/
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pinboy3niner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #9
24. Yes, Josh, I do like it
This is the NYT's Burns again, the same correspondent who reported details challenging the Gaddafi regime's claims about another airstrike in Tripoli:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=1099091&mesg_id=1099298

What I like about Burns' reports is that he doesn't seem to think it's adequate for the media to merely report regime claims/NATO claims and call that 'fair and balanced.' He seeks out more information to add persective on the contradictory claims. Here, his reporting again challenges the truthfulness of the regime:


But the funeral itself seemed strangely flat, at least in political terms. For one thing, despite the location being broadcast on Libyan state television, and circulated in cellphone text messages, barely 500 people showed up, in a city of two million. No important government officials attended. For all the browbeating directed at foreign reporters by mourners who vowed their love for Colonel Qaddafi and their hatred for NATO, the event, taken as a whole, seemed underwhelming.

Part of the problem lay in the contradictions and uncertainties that flowed from official accounts, and those given by the mourners.

According to officials, the nine coffins, with bodies wrapped in the green of Islam, were those of the dead Muslim clerics. But some mourners offered differing counts. Two men whispered that their uncles, among those being buried, were soldiers, and one of those said the man concerned had been dead for weeks. Another identified one of the dead as a driver.




I wonder when Burns will be deported?






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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
10. EnoughGaddafi WEBSITE has been hacked
and delivers a Trojan horse. The Twitter feed is OK.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-11 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
11. 13 May 2011- Dafniya Battle (picture album)
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. The spirit of these non-soldier soldiers is going
to be one of the most memorable things of 2011.
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Distant Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 06:56 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Sadly this IS NOT self-defence. It is militant factionalism as we supported in Afghanistan
Edited on Sun May-15-11 07:17 AM by Distant Observer
the resulted in Al Qaeda and a Taliban that does not negotiate.

The cost in blood, death and hatred, shattered families, economic destruction, far outstrips the benefits to the few who win in this power struggle.
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al bupp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. Your assertions, sir, are not very well supported by numerous reports from Libya
Perhaps if you took the time to put together something a fraction as compelling as the last 2 months of these threads, and the myriad separate reports they contain of, among other things, a rebellion largely consisting of amateurs, you might be more persuasive. On the other hand, at least you've stopped writing messages mostly in CAPS.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. I have saved your post to a file,
Edited on Sun May-15-11 09:47 AM by tabatha
and will discuss it with you in 6 months.
Once again, you are writing stuff that you believe rather than anything close to reality.

On edit - you may have missed this:

"Senior officials in the embattled government of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi have come forward to offer evidence to the International Criminal Court in its investigation of widespread murder and persecution, prosecutors said Sunday.

Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said he will file a 74-page document with nine annexes outlining allegations that the Libyan regime has systematically attacked civilians since launching a brutal crackdown on anti-government rebels in February.

The document will ask judges to issue arrest warrants for the three Libyan leaders considered most responsible for crimes against humanity. Moreno-Ocampo has not revealed the names of the three, but Gaddafi is widely expected to be among them."

Even members of his own side have OFFERED evidence of Gaddafi's brutality and complicity. It is self-defense, as supported by Gaddafi's own officials.
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Distant Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #18
23. Dear Tabatha: The Question is: What is life worth? How much KILLING before negotiating peace.

The Soviets were monstrous in Afghanistan. But the massive Western support for bloody killings created a militant Taliban and a Jihadist Al Qaeda and eventually spawned millions of deaths across the region.

Sorry, but after centuries of murderous militancy we should have found a better way.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 12:28 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. You may not have noticed that
Edited on Sun May-15-11 01:15 PM by tabatha
Gaddafi is doing all of the killing and he has been doing that for 42 years.

One columnist wrote:
In Nato’s nearly two-month war in Libya, civilian casualties have been conspicuous by their almost complete absence.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/andrewgilligan/100087930/libya-has-nato-made-its-first-real-mistake/

On edit:
There will probably be a ceasefire this week, with the Gaddafi family completely out.
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Distant Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 03:01 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. For you concience and others that follow the way of war, I wish it was just. TRUTH SAYS NOT SO

In the killing fields of Vietnam, we said the same every day -- the enemy is evil and is doing all the killing. It was not so, and is not so today. Those guns and missiles of the rebels and the bombs of the Europeans actually kill human beings, sad to say.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 03:27 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. Where was your conscience
during Gaddafi's 42 year reign?
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Iterate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
16. Tunisia pushes back Libyan troops
Tunisia pushes back Libyan troops

(AP) – 24 minutes ago

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — Tunisian official news reports said Sunday that the country's forces thwarted a push by 200 of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's troops into Tunisian territory and arrested two people suspected of links to al-Qaida.

Tensions have flared on the border in recent weeks as fighting in Libya has spilled over into Tunisia, which is struggling to restore stability after an uprising earlier this year that sparked revolts around the Arab world.

The Tunisian military sent tanks, armored vehicles and reinforcement troops to the Tataouine region on its southern border with Libya in response to the latest tensions Saturday, resident Mohamed Hedia told The Associated Press.

Tunisian army troops deployed along the border thwarted an attempt by 200 troops from Gadhafi's army to cross the border Saturday aboard some 50 off-road vehicles, the state news agency TAP reported.

more...
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gedLe3pBDE29EO9_vuHccT-ikYTA?docId=29e3b5fb03054bbc88f0a318c59d802d
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Iterate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
20. Prosecutors put final touches to Libya indictment
Prosecutors put final touches to Libya indictment

(AP) – 2 hours ago

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Senior officials in the embattled government of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi have come forward to offer evidence to the International Criminal Court in its investigation of widespread murder and persecution, prosecutors said Sunday.

"During the last week, the Office of the Prosecutor received several calls from high-level officials in Gadhafi's regime willing to provide information," prosecutors said in a statement. They did not elaborate on the nature of the information or name the officials.

Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said he will file a 74-page document with nine annexes outlining allegations that the Libyan regime has systematically attacked civilians since launching a brutal crackdown on anti-government rebels in February.

The document will ask judges to issue arrest warrants for the three Libyan leaders considered most responsible for crimes against humanity.

more indictments...
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i_YyD1dYZ5Io27kBye-gB-aTe94Q?docId=8a3e0c3130ba4c14831e08c9de3be4ae

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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
21. ITV journalist speaks to LYM en route to Misrata
http://youtu.be/YHuTr7hH3Rk

(Awesome. Open-minded guy.)
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pinboy3niner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
25. In Kadafi's Libya, even soccer was ruthless




In Benghazi, the beloved soccer club ran afoul of Moammar Kadafi and his soccer enthusiast son, Saadi. The result was the destruction of the team and its facilities more than a decade ago.


By Patrick J. McDonnell, Los Angeles Times
May 14, 2011



Reporting from Benghazi, Libya— It is one of Libya's oldest and most venerable institutions, predating not only Moammar Kadafi's rule but independence in 1951, and boasting what is perhaps the country's most fervent fan base.

But in a police state where soccer served as a substitute for resistance, the lads from the Al Ahli sports club angered the wrong crowd: Kadafi and his soccer-besotted son, Saadi.

The club paid a steep price: Its grounds were demolished, its signature Al Ahli Benghazi soccer team was dissolved, its red-and-white colors were removed from public display. Dozens of supporters were sent to prison, with some sentenced to death for subversion.

...


On the edge of downtown Benghazi, the former grounds of the Al Ahli club remain a desolate expanse of battered grandstands, abandoned light posts and concrete rubble, a barren monument to the intersection of sports and politics in Moammar Kadafi's Libya.


http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-soccer-20110514,0,7398847,full.story








http://i948.photobucket.com/albums/ad321
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
28. Will there be a ceasefire soon?
Edited on Sun May-15-11 01:30 PM by tabatha
on Libya Live Blog 44 minutes ago
to explain my last statements
i get a lot of infos in the last two hours ,and all are in the same direktion.
ouick change ,.officals are waiting for un to discuss with him the terms and conditions ,
so we will see spokes man tomorrow.
daffi -clan lost most of his power ,even elements from his elite-brigades deflekt now

on Libya Live Blog 56 minutes ago
daffis troops are not in reteat ,they are on the run now.
most of the military inside tripoli want to finish it ,but not by shoting on the own people.
goverment ministers want to stop this war ,as quick as possible
no future for saif in power.
as i say weeks ago regime break from inside.

on Libya Live Blog 1 hour ago
i am waiting for goverment spokesman
tell us that daffi-clan is not longer in power
the official ministerpresident will declare a ceasefire and will hold talks with all groops about the future of libya
regime is cracking from inside today

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-0


The United Nation's special envoy to Libya Abdul-Ilah al-Khatib has arrived in Tripoli to urge a ceasefire between Muammar Gaddafi's troops and rebels seeking to topple the strongman, as an anti-regime revolt entered a fourth month.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 02:19 PM
Response to Original message
29. Libyan TVs to be banned from all Arab owned satellites


Sources tell Al Jazeera Arabic that the Arab League have voted for Libyan TVs to be banned from all Arab owned satellites.

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-0

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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-11 05:13 PM
Response to Original message
35. Week 13 here (starting midweek):
Edited on Sun May-15-11 05:19 PM by joshcryer
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