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Is it possible for the Democrats to take the House of Representatives in 2012?

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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 03:49 PM
Original message
Poll question: Is it possible for the Democrats to take the House of Representatives in 2012?
Feel free to explain your answer.
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MineralMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. Of course it is.
All that is required is hard work on the Congressional District level to make sure that every Democrat actually goes to the polls and votes. If that is done, we will regain control of the House. If Democrats sit on their hands, we will not. It is that simple.
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Would you agree that the GOP has given the Democrats the opening they need?
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MineralMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. They haven't hurt, but it doesn't really matter.
I think we all know why the GOP made such gains in 2010, both in Congress and in state legislatures. We just have to not do that again. I hope we learned something. I'm not 100% confident that we did, though, based on what I read here.
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. This should be another reason to get out and oust the GOP-->
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1113716
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 03:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. If Obama voters get to the polls this time and look past his name, it's possible.
However, I think this election will be more like normal. No landslide in any case.

Look past the shiny object and support the President with a downticket D vote, kids.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 03:54 PM
Response to Original message
3. wow. I'm surprised so many people voted yes
Of course it's possible, but it's highly unlikely.
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elocs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #3
14. That's exactly right. Anything is possible, doesn't make it likely.
Maybe not highly unlikely, but at least unlikely.
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Modern_Matthew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 03:57 PM
Response to Original message
4. It's almost a certainty that candidates labeled as Dems will reclaim the House in 2012...
Voting with the real Democrats (The Progressive Caucus) is another story.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. actually, it's very unlikely. redistricting, loss of seats that traditionally go dem
and republican control in states like PA
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
7. If we don't fuck it up!
Not only the politicians, but also the ones with the mouths
who are supposed to be out there "activating" folks.
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regnaD kciN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 04:22 PM
Response to Original message
9. We may well take back the House, but...
...I fear we're going to have a hard time holding on to the Senate.
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Johonny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 04:31 PM
Response to Original message
11. If you can't run against what Republicans have voted for the last 4+ months
what can you run on?
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former9thward Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 04:49 PM
Response to Original message
12. Possible yes, Probable no.
Big swings rarely take place in two straight elections.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
13. Only if they bother.
That doesn't mean campaigning, or finding the least offensive slogans. It means standing up as Democrats against the essentially Republican status quo economic and foreign policy, which is always hard for them when a Democrat is in the White House.
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Tierra_y_Libertad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 05:17 PM
Response to Original message
15. Maybe..and that's for certain.
I think 16 months adds up to several eternities in politics.
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FreeJoe Donating Member (331 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 05:23 PM
Response to Original message
16. Intrade puts the odds at 40%
That sounds about right.
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Dj13Francis Donating Member (343 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
17. I said no.
The reason? Two words. Citizens United.
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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 05:43 PM
Response to Original message
18. the bigger question is "can we hold the Senate"?

we are playing defense on a lot of seats in '12


I am hoping for the best but it is to far out to be certain of anything
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 08:16 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. The Democrats are in the same position the GOP was in last fall.
If things clearly turn towards the Democrats, then they should hold the Senate.
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
20. kick
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SidDithers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
21. "Republicans voted to cut Medicare"...
say it loud, say it often.

Sid
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Philippine expat Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 01:37 PM
Response to Original message
22.  Another vote for possible
but not very probable. I see the Democrats regaining 30 or 40 seats leaving
the GOP with less seats but still the majority
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. Democrats needs 25 seats to retake control.
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Philippine expat Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #23
32. Man, did I have a brain fart,
knew the Gop have a 49 seat majority, for some reason momentarily was thinking
Dems needed all 49 to get a majority. Should never post when as tired as I was then.
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Rochester Donating Member (486 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 01:25 AM
Response to Original message
24. I think it's possible, sure, but....
...I don't know how likely it is, especially with so much time and politicking still to go before the election.
It's not impossible that we might pick up the House but lose the Senate - we're defending a lot of seats this time around. If both happen, that would be both houses changing hands in the opposite direction. Has that ever happened before?
Fingers crossed to get both houses into D. hands and keep us moving in the right direction in Obama's second term.
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mdmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 01:27 AM
Response to Original message
25. the dlc, no..
but old school always has a shot.
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burrowowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 01:35 AM
Response to Original message
26. Dems are know for
snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!
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burrowowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 01:35 AM
Response to Original message
27. Dems are known for
Edited on Wed May-18-11 01:36 AM by burrowowl
snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 04:44 PM
Response to Original message
28. kick
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LiberalAndProud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 04:47 PM
Response to Original message
29. Honestly, I don't know about other states.
Edited on Wed May-18-11 04:47 PM by LiberalAndProud
I have two Republican Reps and they won't be going anywhere. We'll lose our one Democratic seat in the Senate. So, as usual I must leave it up to the rest of the country. Good luck, everybody.
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quaker bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
30. It is always possible
all the seats are up for election. Cutting the margin of republican majority is very likely. I know odds makers would not agree, but I would give Dems slightly better than 50:50 odds of retaking the majority. If repugs shut government down or default on debt, I would push that toward 60:40 in the dems favor. If they do that and nominate a teahadist wackaloon for President, the odds go toward near certainty.

If the teahadist governors keep pushing stupid ideas, the odds also improve.
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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-18-11 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
31. No. The republicans are fired up. Democrats who should vote stay home.
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