Recent tornado outbreaks result of climate change?

I know that we're in the middle of tornado season, and we get bad tornado outbreaks every so often. But it seems like the recent batch - in particular the one that devastated parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and other areas a few weeks ago - are more severe than before. The reason that this year's outbreaks have been so much severe is because of warmer-than-normal air coming up from the Gulf, meeting with colder air coming out of Canada, which is a perfect recipe for supercell storms and tornadoes.

And the kicker of this is that this sort of activity was predicted, that scientists tried warning that we would be facing increased severe weather as a result of climate change. And this is just the beginning! How much worse will it be 20-30 years from now?

the indigent and are bad stewards of the environment that He made.

Tongue in cheek.

I'm just sayin'...

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

of sorts over the past few years. Living in Maine, we haven't seen the sun up here in 10 straight days. But I wouldn't swap our situation for the misery that Mother Nature is dishing out in many other areas of this country and the world.

But that's exactly it. Climate change results in many zillions more joules of thermal energy being in circulation in the atmosphere, which translates into more wind, more water evaporating and going into the atmosphere, turning into clouds, more storms, more hurricanes, more tornadoes, more blizzards, more droughts.

Global climate change doesn't turn the world into a desert, it makes the weather more violent.

Your post is a classic case of letting your own biases lead you to a conclusion that is not true. If you had bothered to look at the actual data instead of going with your gut feel on the subject, you would have found that the frequency of violent tornadoes has actually been going down slightly over the last 30 years:




The past few weeks have been bad in terms of the number of tornadoes, but climate change is not about a few isolated weeks of data. Only if we continue to see a large number of F3-F5 strength tornadoes can we say that the trend has reversed and started back up to where it was in the 1960's and 1970's.

One large tornado hitting a populated area is bound to happen every so often - statistically speaking. The thing is, you could get a big outbreak with a few Ef-5's in a day, and if they all hit fields or the odd farm, not much is said. In fact, this particular tornado happened in a day that was not supposed to be an extremely large outbreak. Tomorrow is supposed to be worse (ie the conditions are 'better' for tornadoes) but if none of those tomorrow hit a populated area, then yesterday will seem worse, even though in scientific terms it isn't. It has been a bad season, yes. And there has been extraordinary bad luck in that tornadoes seem to be hitting populated centers. But none of that is 'proof' of climate change. Climate change is a theory, and the evidence can support the theory, but one event isn't proof of anything.

I check the NOAA site that is graph is on and the graph is only up to 2005.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html#alley

If you look at the last few years there is a consistent trend to increasing frequency of tornadoes as a whole. It's trending up, not down.

Also, more states are seeing tornadoes. In the area I live and I've been here my whole 50+ years, almost a every batch of thunder storms now, thrash the place. Knocking down trees and knocking out power. It was never like this when I was growing up here in the Northeast. Tornadoes where almost unheard of. I had one come through 1/4 mile from my house a few years ago.

Another stat I would like to see, how long the tornadoes we're seeing now are staying on the ground. It would be interesting if they where longer lasting. I know the one that hit near my home got stronger going up hill and had a track that went more than 20 miles.

And if you had looked a little closer, you'd see that the graph goes through 2007, not 2005. Now I admit that it is possible that in the past few years there has been an increase as you claim, but you'll have to do better than anecdotal evidence. Post some real data then we can talk.

Link again.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

Also, try posting the actual graph you are referring to instead of a link to a page full of data that people have to wade through. All I can glean from that page is that tornado activity might have been going up slightly during the last 5 years. Big deal. 2005 had hardly any F3-F5 tornadoes, so of course the trend is going to be upwards from there. Try looking at the long term trend and you'll see that what I said is true: tornado activity has slightly declined over the last 30-40 years.

unheard of where I was growing up in 1987. When I say unheard of, think Canada, and not near the US border either. That didn't stop an F-4 hit my area, a mere 1/2 mile from my house, and stay on the ground for an hour, killing 27 people? Can I point to that one tornado, in an 'unheard of' area for tornadoes and say "AHA! Climate change!" No, I cannot.

Is there a trend for MORE tornadoes? I do believe there is. However, you have to look at the long term trend, not each individual event. It's akin to the deniers saying, after a bunch of blizzards and a cold spring, "See? It was cold this year! No global warming!" The point is you cannot point to this and say, "global warming!" We can all think it, and file it in the backs of our brain, and let the scientists record all the events and put them together, THEN give us the conclusion over many years that, yes, indeed, global warming is causing us to have more tornadoes. We are SURE global warming IS happening. And it calls for MORE events like this and the Alabama twisters to happen. And it SEEMS like indeed, that is what is happening. However, we have to wait until the data is in before we can come to any conclusions.

A report I saw mentioned that the number of EF-5 tornadoes in the Alabama tornado swarm was unprecedented; that typically in a single season, there might be 1 or 2 EF-5 tornadoes, and that day saw more than that. The reason for the unusually strong storms was because of unusually warm air coming from the Gulf...hence my take that climate change and global warming is at least partially responsible.

I see no point in arguing with people's hunches.

Let me help. A look at the historical actual data shows that 1974 saw 14 EF-5 tornadoes. http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/custom/554476/table

There is nothing statistically significant going on right now. This year just happened to have the misfortune of having tornadoes strike populated areas. Don't confuse an increase in news stories about tornadoes with an actual increase in tornadoes.

It's fading, but it's influence is still being strongly felt.

TERMS invented in the eighties when warming started becoming real obvious to THE PEOPLE.

Climate change is about odds more than "this IS climate change," but a half an hour ago I was musing about all the disasters that have hit the southeast recently. It's horrible what's been happening down there. :(

Just a guess.

Harold Brooks:



So, it's not obvious whether we should even expect more and/or stronger tornadoes.

Here's a link to the over all trending for tornadoes. Check it out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

It's this graph:



What does this prove? Beats me...

You weren't so bloody aggressive about it. Everything you've said has been technically correct but I can guarantee you that your insulting tone is causing a lot of people to ignore what you are saying out of hand. Are you trying to be helpful or are you trying to feel better about yourself by cutting others down?

There is no need for the insulting tone. I just get frustrated when people here make statements that are blatantly unscientific while simultaneously crowing about how the "other" side is a bunch of unscientific idiots.

Sorry for just putting up links and not the graphs. I had to get off the computer and didn't have time to post properly. Yes, a few years doesn't make a trend. Same as a three game winning streak doesn't mean your team is going to the World Series, but the violence of some of the outbreaks we've been having just makes me wonder if we've hit one of those tipping points in the non-linear system that the weather is. I was linking to show that what's happening may be like the out-liner that we had in 1975. Let's just hope it's just a "spike" not a "trend".

One of them shows that through May 22, there have been 1168 tornadoes reported via Local Storm Reports, compared to an average 671 for 2005-10.

In no way do these data support a steady or inexorable increase in the number of tornadoes. This year was running behind the average through mid-April; by the end of April, it was well above average. It looks like it is actually running below average in the month of May, which of course leaves it well above average for the year.

I agree with pretty much everything you've posted in this thread.

They did a neat little job covering for BP regarding dolphin deaths.

Ever notice how NONE of the extreme, record breaking weather in recent years is the result of climate change?

I call bullshit.

everything is everything

but I have lived in "Tornado Alley" for the better part of the last 35+ years...and I do not recall as many watches and warnings as we have had in the past couple of years.

I don't care how many graphs you pull out, statistics are generally almost always used to skew an argument, but I know that I am seeing this first hand.

Not only that, but our thunderstorms are more frequent and more violent, tornado watches and warnings are more frequent (even if they don't always produce tornadoes, the conditions for them are favorable).

Our winters have also been more extreme.

I have no doubts whatsoever that this is due to global climate change.