Comin' this summer... $5 gas

Source: New York Post

The forecast for the summer driving season: Hit the road early. Not to beat the traffic, but to beat the higher gas prices expected in mid-July.

Goldman Sachs' crystal ball is proclaiming that oil will soon soar to $135 a barrel, and likely have service stations jacking up fuel prices to $5 a gallon in New York just like the summer of 2008 that preceded the recession. Indeed, analysts say Goldman and the other oil trading giant that also has the might to move prices, JPMorgan Chase, have already placed their energy bets for the summer. JPMorgan predicts oil hitting $130 a barrel in the coming weeks.

Despite all the turmoil in the Middle East associated with the Arab Spring rioting, oil has fallen to the $100 level, closing out May with a stunning 12 percent drop.

But before the storm, the calm. There appears to be a backlash by some oil-pit analysts."Whoever would buy into these rising prices is just paying homage (to Wall Street firms) and helping the speculative positions," said one oil trading source familiar with energy bets of Wall Street trading desks.





Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/the_living_easy_the_driving_is_hard_9mzb1aAfj4bpC8X63YYKhI

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So this isn't really a prediction, but a proclamation. Bastards.

about to be turned inside out.

they will adopt price controls and the companies will either sell for a lower profit or not sell in france.

but 5 dollars a gallon would be ok, i budgeted 6 dollars a gallon for driving to florida in a two weeks from chicago and gas is only 4 a gallon, which means more money for ice cream....

I could not find an "envy" or "jealous" smilie.

$3 this Summer is my prediction. Laugh all you want now, you'll cheer later.

.... was based on supply and demand, I would agree with you. The problem is that these big IBs have the power to manipulate markets and that is what they are doing.

If gas does hit $5, it is going to affect the economy overall in a bad way.

Bad economy = Increased probability of a Republican winning the presidency next year.

... no politician has done more for the banksters than Obama.

They're extremely happy with Bush's bankruptcy reform and not too keen on Obama's Consumer Financial Protection Agency. They're doing fine and dandy under Obama, too, but they're greedy and always want more.

a deflation of the dollar. Think I'll start questioning their statement that this is not a depression. I'm sure feeling a bit depressed.

They couldn't even hold the $4 limit for Memorial Day...

The gas prices here in Georgia are dropping every day. As of this morning, our local TV station was reporting gas prices averaging $3.79 for regular.

Ravi Batra predicted this bubble when the recession 1st hit. Since we have rescued the uber rich, they have to find a place to park all their unnecessary money. (They don't need to spend it, they have everything they need or want) Since the CDOs and other mortgage backed crap is known to be worthless, they need something solid and real. So, speculators are buying up gold, oil and other commodities. Simply put, with the help of the bailout, they are re-inflating the bubble.

"“That’s how we have developed a massive glut of 677 million barrels worth of contracts in the front four months on the NYMEX and, come rollover day – that will be the amount of barrels ‘on order’ for the front 3 months, unless a lot barrels get dumped at market prices fast.

“Keep in mind that the entire United States uses ‘just’ 18M barrels of oil a day, so 677M barrels is a 37-day supply of oil. But, we also make 9M barrels of our own oil and import ‘just’ 9M barrels per day, and 5M barrels of that is from Canada and Mexico who, last I heard, aren’t even having revolutions.

“So, ignoring North Sea oil, Brazil and Venezuela, and lumping Africa in with OPEC, we are importing 3Mbd from unreliable sources and there is a 225-day supply under contract for delivery at the current price, or cheaper, plus we have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve that holds another 727 million barrels (full) plus 370M barrels of commercial storage in the U.S. (also full) which is another 365.6 days of marginal oil already here in storage in addition to the 225 days under contract for delivery.“

These contracts for oil outnumber their actual delivery, a sign of speculation and market manipulation, as oil companies win government authorizations for wells but then don’t open them for exploration or exploitation.

It’s all a game of manipulating oil supply to keep prices up. And no one seems to be regulating it."

There is so much oil out there, they can no longer store it in the US.

The complete piece is at: http://www.consortiumnews.com/2011/041911a.html

Don't you just love being manipulated by greedy banksters? Apparently our federal government is just fine with it.

It's hard to see through the smoke & mirrors of the various competing agendas to get a clear picture of what's actually happening in the global markets. I can only trust my gut instincts to tell me what is propaganda by vested interests and what has the ring of truth - however faint. The analysis you linked to got me to prick up my ears.

Now that summer is here in New Hampshire, quite
a few people still leave their parked cars/trucks/
SUVs idling so that they can keep the air
conditioning going.

Maybe $5 gas will solve that, but I doubt it.

Tesha

Those people would die in TX. My truck's AC hasn't worked in 3 years. I just don't drive in the hotter parts of the day.

Days over ninety.

But we don't actually *NEED* it; the AC in Mr. Tesha's
Dodge is dead again and depending on what broke this
time and how much it's going to cost to fix it, it
may or may not get fixed at all.

Tesha

It's hot in the summer up here but nothing like Texas. You can keep that crap and I'll put up with the snow a few days a year!

There are countless other examples of little things people could do to conserve fuel, but since the individual acts themselves don't save much fuel people rarely bother.

Speaking of which, I can't remember the last time I checked my tire pressure.

which is good for the planet

I saw some stupid bitch reading a book over the lunch hour in her idleing SUV and said the same thing.

They're behind the speculation driving prices up.
when no one can afford to go anywhere on vacation and there's a glut of gasoline, prices will drop a little and the people will be happy until the next time.

High prices need upward pressure on wages and full employment to sustain. Otherwise they will simply collapse in a glut. At present we have neither full employment or upward wage pressure.

But even here on DU, people are in love with
single-occupant travel, and many won't give it
up until you pry it from their cold dead hands.

Tesha

In other words, about 99% of the American population.

We live at the literal edge of the 'burbs. Out our
back yard, you could walk hundreds of miles and cross
nothing more urban that farms with lots of mountains
and forests mixed in. Out our front yard, you're in
the BosWash Megalopolis.

The nearest grocery store is 2 miles away (one way),
but Mr. Tesha walks it routinely, bringing 25 pounds
of groceries home on his back. The nearest full-
service farm stand is about four miles the other
way and he walks that shopping trip too.

The only reason life's essentials aren't within walking
distance for "99% of Americans" is that they just don't
want to move their (generally) lard-laden asses.

Tesha

Finding an decent place to live, even an apartment is difficult. Apartments, even one bedroom ones are relatively expensive unless you like living in crime-ridden neighborhoods.

I'm disputing the idea that 99% truly couldn't
live without our cars. We'd live. It would be
a different life but we'd live.

If all the cars disappeared overnight, not only
would individuals respond but so would the economy.
Suddenly, the jitney bus service that isn't econom-
ically viable today would be *VERY* viable. People
would be reminded that once they put big baskets
on their now-very-stylish mountain bikes, they
*COULD* lug home 50 or 75 pounds of groceries.
Or they'd simply shop every day like much of the
rest of the world does, carrying home ten pounds
of groceries.

Liquid fuels could be concentrated on commercial
transportation instead of individual transportation.
If none of use were fueling our personal cars/
trucks/SUVs, there'd be plenty of diesel for
delivery trucks.

We'd suddenly discover that lots of us are "cross-
commuting" to work with you driving a hundred miles
a day to work in my town while I drive a hundred
miles a day to work in your town and we're both
doing roughly-equivalent jobs! Heck, maybe we'd
even finally realize that many of these jobs could
be done by telecommuting rather than being physically
present in the office each day.

Life would change, but it wouldn't have to be for
the worse. (And in the bargain, we'd probably all
become a lot more physically fit.)

Tesha

8 miles on rural country roads so narrow there was only room for a single yellow stripe. Heap contempt on me all you want.

But my point remains: when the economics of gasoline
pricing make it uneconomical for you to drive to the
store alone in your car, alternatives will arise:

o Jitney busses/paratransit/taxis will be profitable

o Smaller satellite markets will pop-up

o Grocery delivery services will arise

o You'll plan your purchases and drive to the store
with your neighbor(s).

Tesha

The state is mostly rural, with the major cities clustered near NYC and in the Connecticut river valley. The rest of the state is pure New England. I live on the Eastern side.

I'm as much a suburb of NYC as Charleston, WV is a suburb of Washington, DC!

I get annoyed that people think CT is part of NY city.

No, I did not. I simply don't believe you're 8 miles
from the nearest grocery store. Maybe 8 miles from
the one you *LIKE* to shop at, but that's different.

Tesha

It's 8 miles to the nearest grocery store. Not the one I like - the nearest! It's 9.7 to the next nearest, and 10.2 to another.

It's called the countryside. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rural_area

(According to one web site) there are 2754 grocery
stores in Connecticut.

There are 5,543 square miles in Connecticut.

So, on average, there's one grocery store for every
two square miles of the state.

Now I realize that they're not uniformly distributed
across the state, but you must live in an area that's
pretty far off the curve to have to travel that far
for food.

We're pretty rural here in NH, too, and I think I'd
still have to work pretty hard to find areas of
Southern NH where the nearest grocery store is
that far away. Of course, some of that depends on
what your idea of a grocery store is, but that
returns to my original point about how things
will change; maybe in the expensive-fuel future,
the neighborhood store will again be considered
"worthy" of notice, as stores such as A&P once
were before the Walmartization of America.

Tesha

There is also the issue of roads. I am only 4 miles as the crow flies from the nearest grocery store, but the windy country roads add on another 4 miles.

You can almost spot all the interstates and major state roads!

Regarding your point about "the route", I've often wondered if one
of the changes that will come about as cars become less-economical
to operate will be the rise of more walking paths/bike trails that go
"more directly" than do the present set of roads. For example, when
Mr. Tesha is walking to the supermarket, he takes several walking/
biking-only trails that make the walk noticeably shorter than it would
be to drive in the car.

Tesha

Even when I was at my most puritanical and single and young I occasionally bought gas.

Now I view it as a pragmatic thing.

Time is money. Technically I could make multiple trips to the store that's two miles away and carry stuff in a backpack. But doing it in a car takes half an hour instead of half a day.

There are people in major metropolitan areas that rarely drive, but every once in a while they have to go out of town.

Mr Tesha walks to the store? Is there a reason why you can't do the walk? If there is a reason you can't do the walk, then welcome to the world that a lot of people live in. You know, disabled or elderly and they can't do the walk. They have to drive.

The round trip would challenge me, but I could do
it if that's what I had to do to eat.

He, on the other hand, eats the miles like they're
candy. So since he enjoys it better, why shouldn't
he do it?

And even so, I wouldn't have to drive. There's
always our local citybus (even if it takes planning),
the paratransit, a taxi, or even my bicycle.

Tesha

Plus a taxi rates can get pretty pricey, so I am rather curious what you expect poor people to do.

A bike is a fabulous idea providing you're young enough and healthy, oh and you're not a single parent with young children. You can't leave the children home while you merrily peddle off to the store. My buddy who lost his leg to cancer isn't peddling either, he can't.

In my town the city bus is very limited and thanks to cut backs a para-transit is a thing of the past for most.

It's truly wonderful you can get someone else to do your shopping, a lot of people don't have that.

Taxis may be hybrids, requiring much less gas.

Taxis may be diesel (which may, of course, be biodiesel).

Taxis may be electric.

And (horror of horrors!), they may be *SHARED*.

Will poor people be affected by the coming disruption? Of
course they will -- we all will! But using a taxi occasionally
may actually be a better option than owning a car continuously.

Tesha

And, you still didn't answer the questions.

You apparently didn't like my answers.

BTW, in my small city, paratransit is available to
transport the elderly and the disabled. Of course,
providing that is a choice we have made.

Tesha

The rest of us in other towns aren't so lucky. Oh, and you didn't answer my questions.

you can count on it.

And guess what? I just did!

guess what? I just did.

Maybe the republicans are trying to crash the economy ...... again?

in 2008 I was taking the bus to work and the increase in ridership was suddenly noticeable. Standing room only some days.

But it would have meant at least 5 hours travel time along with a 12 hour shift.
40-45 minutes to work in the traffic at 5 PM, 10-15 minutes home at 6 AM in the car.

This article claims that a Saudi prince will give us cheap oil if we don't look for energy alternatives:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/nationworld/os-saudi-prince-20110529,0,7053885.story

If I had a dime for every time I read that on here.

...but given that oil is a finite resource and
humanity's desire for it still is not nearly
satsified, you can bet that even if gas doesn't
hit $5 now, it will sometime all-too-soon.

But then again, you're the person who thinks
there's no need to conserve any energy (such
as switching to more-efficient light bulbs).

I think your beliefs will be soundly rebutted
in the next decade or so.

Tesha

Life goes on. We're stuck paying the price.
We cut back in other areas and that hurts the economy. Old news.

It's not the same as the lightbulb ban debate as nobody's talking about banning certain types of cars.

> It's not the same as the lightbulb ban debate as
> nobody's talking about banning certain types of cars.

That's a shame -- they ought to be! Or, more likely,
they ought to be taxed out of being bought solely
for "casual purposes".

But instead, as you'll recall, our tax code got
modified so Hummers were essentially free for
corporate entities (like doctors, lawyers, and
real estate agents). Our government giving hummers,
err, Hummers to corporations; "no one could have
anticipated *THAT*!"

Tesha

even if it's a 1/4 mile away. I could never live without my car.

...or you could get in your car, drive there,
and park in, what, five minutes?

So what's the advantage of driving?

Tesha

on the part of government. Then it eases back (still higher than it was) to take the pressure off their paid-for congress and administration. After a little while it goes up again. Public outcry. Political posturing. Ease back (but not to old prices). Over and over. It's a simple game and it always works. Especially when you own the government.

Fortunately the Republicans have to find a credible candidate.

I am reminded of John Donne's words about no man being an island.

And BTW, many DUers who like to find fault with the poor and downtrodden would do well to reflect on this theme, also.