Just had a private chat with a (D) Congresswoman...

...Boehner to introduce his debt limit/spending cuts bill later today; she doesn't think he has the votes from his own caucus to pass it...

...thinks the (R) Congress willing to bring down the economy if they can "get" Obama...

...Not sure how much support Reid proposal will have among House (D) members...

...Worried that we'll "sell out" in the end to the Republicans...

...thinks odds of a default are "50/50"...

Seven days, ten hours to go...

i'm sorry, that's not something that should be posted without confirmation. Default by all accounts would be global catastrophe. Tell us who it was and we'll get some reporter to get her to comment publicly.

And either she misspoke or it was relayed wrong. Obama will have to make some tough calls on what cuts to make if the ceiling is not raised, but I don't think there's any chance that he (and Geithner) will choose to default on public debt.

For a few weeks I thought politicians on both sides were saying "default" as a way to scare us and the clueless media just relayed the message. I'm starting to think many in congress are just as clueless so maybe the congresswomen did say that.

IF the debt ceiling is NOT raised (at least if it lasts longer than a couple of days) will BE a default, even if they use different terminology.

You can call furloughing 800,000 workers, and shutting down various government agencies "default", but those aren't "default" in the normal financial sense and won't cause direct financial crisis like failing to meet our public debt obligations. Those will likely cause problems to our economy as 800,000 people won't be getting paychecks and won't be paying for products and services from other people. And that will carry over to the global economy. But it's not "default" in the normal sense.

Obama will have enough money to pay debt, SS, medicare, and fund "essential" military functions and some other federal services. He can choose to not fund them. Or he can choose to not pay for other things (depts. of edu/engergy/etc, public parks, Amtrak, post office, unemployment, various infrastructure and research grants)

He can cut everything equally (resulting in default). Or pay some in full and some partially (e.g. fund pell grants and shut down the rest of the dept of edu). He has a lot of discretion, and I have no doubt he well opt to fully fund our debt. Everything else can be repaired if the ceiling is raised in a short time span (furloughed workers will likely get back pay, dept or edu/etc will get their full year's budget to disperse to local schools, etc). And everything will be forgotten in a few months. If we "default" in the financial sense we can make up the lost payments + interest, but the effect will last years if not longer in terms of rates we can get on bonds.

It's no different than a source used by a news service.

"confirmation" from a private conversation with a Congressperson. It sounds like she was speculating and giving a constitutient her personal opinion, NOT an official one. And personal opinions, even for Congresspersons, should be kept "unofficial" if that's what is wanted.

I'm guessing this is a staffer or someone with direct access. We should listen up.

. . .i question her understanding of macroeconomics. There is still cash in the system to cover the interest payments. All that must be deferred are principal payments. Those could be paid with continuing interest after all this nonsense and posturing stops.
GAC

They are doomed to repeat the mistakes of 60 years ago. Their radical ideas will keep them in the minority for another 40 years.

or care that the Republicans want to destroy him. Really, I've been struggling with this: Is he naive and doesn't realize how much they hate him; or, does he know and understand that they hate him but just doesn't give a shit?

It's only the rest of us schmucks who get bamboozled by the show biz soap opera professional wrestling aspects of politics.

The (R)s have hated Obama with a white-hot racist passion since before he became the nominee. They hold over 90% of the nation's wealth. They can afford to take a hit to get him out.

Might prefer a Republican but they know he's not going to do anythingbto upset their apple cart.

The owners, the bosses, the 'leaders' - they are in the same club as Obama. They don't hate him. They hold over 90% of the nation's wealth.

The others - the teabaggers, the religious nuts, the racists, the followers - THEY hate Obama. He is emblematic of everything they hate, and they hate a LOT. They do NOT hold over 90% of the nations wealth. They are down here in the 8% range along with us. They are being conned by their leaders, and when the crunch comes they will turn their rage against Obama, not the people who crashed the economy.

It is a lot easier to understand the other side when you acknowledge this divide.

I wish they would just go ahead and officially split, so we could get on with the business of a TRUE worker's party.

The nincompoops still like Palin. Bloomberg ran a cover story on her titled "Why Big Business Doesn't Trust Her" and it was SCATHING regarding her inability to govern, her lack of understanding of business, geopollitics and economics.

That's the group you're talking about. I agree that those guys don't hate anybody as long as they get their way.
GAC

Banks don't foreclose on war widows because they hate them. They are just following the dictates of their ledger.

for this man. To ignore the obvious is just plain naive.

And *we're* the "schumucks," as you say?

Come on! Let's be real and intellectually honest.

Modern politics is ultimately just a dog and pony show, when you look at the results. Both parties are beholden to the same Big Interest Oligarchs who are pulling the real strings. Obama or McCain or Romney -- they'll all be dancinbg to the same tune on the issues that really matter in terms of wealth and power.

The rest of it is based on "lifestyle choices." I'm on this side because the traditional Democratic image and message reflects my own values and goals. And since I prefer to hang out with basically like-minded people, I prefer to identify with Democrats.

Republican schmucks are the same way. They buy into pirate free-market nonsense and "family values" so they support Republicans. And since they don't like people who are not exactly like they are, they hate Obaama.

And the elections and the legislative dramas and personalities are entertaining -- and caring about them and participating makes us feel like we are part of the process.

But ultimately, that is all window dressing. The elite oligarchs will continue to make the decisions and controil the agenda, no matter which team wins.

That's wehy we'rer all schmucks -- because we keep enabling this topheavy system.

Too cynical you say? Well I wasn't always so fatalistic, but the last couple of yerars have been a lastr straw. Thgat's what Prewident Obama hasd done to my own sense of hope.

PS Pardonb my typing. I'm writing oin an iPad, which is not the most stable keyboard in the world.

REAL LIVES!!!

Their hatred for one man will tear this country to pieces and they could give a damn about it.

I'm asking you to be intellectually honest here. There is true hatred for this man on the other side. And a great deal of hatred here on DU as well.

...as anger and disappointment and perhaps a lot of fear. Most people like the guy, and he raiused our hopes. I'd say most of us like him, but are fed up at his poerformance and decisions.

Yioiu are correct that thius is about people's real lives. That';s a bigh reasion we are so pissed that he is letting them get away with it so easily.

(againb apolkogies fior the typing.)

I disagree with the motives underlying the other side. This was all by design. Planned in advance. Bush even told you that he would leave the big issues for the next president. They set it up real good. The economy falters in September 2008. They started blaming Obama when it was clear that McCain was losing.

I do believe it's hatred, a lot of it driven by racism--subtle and explicit. They started this shit, first by Palin and her minions, left unchecked by the Corporate Media, allowed to continued when the man raised his hand to take the oath. Remember shortly thereafter was Limpballs' infamous "I want him to fail" remark, and DeMint's "It will be his Waterloo; it will break him" remark. At that point, Obama had not fully taken office yet. And yet, the table was set to blame HIM for the economic decline and everything else.

We need to wake up here on DU and realize what we face. We still refuse to accept who the real enemies are: The Republican Party!!!!

They know whats best and Uncle Ruckus himself only has a condition that makes him appear to be one of those monkey Democrats, Like with Michael Jackson but in Reverse.

that they live in this country, too and wouldn't want it to be a shitty place. I was wrong, he's wrong. The idea that they love their country more than they hate him...well I think we see where they land.

Really: Just watch the coverage and see for yourself how excited they are about the prospect of a governmental default. It's so thrilling! Wheeeee! They apparently think this won't touch them from what I can tell. But you can bet your bottom dollar that any negative consequences of a default visited on their perfectly coiffed heads will be met with howls of pain and demands to know how these horrible developments could have intruded into their little bubble!

I don't think they're thrilled about the prospect; I think they're thrilled about the anticipation; they don't WANT it to happen, but it allows for countdown clocks and "what if" stories galore...

Maybe it's consternation or anxiety, but I'm getting a definite vibe from the reporting and commentary that the prospect and reality of a government shutdown is something they're excited to cover, the sort of thing that makes a career like a war or something. And the exact same indifference to any potential victims whether it's war or governmental default, because they don't perceive themselves as being at risk.

Hmmmm......

Once again they are writing our 2012 political ads for us. They are patsies.